Four Risky Picks for Your Fantasy Football Team - Noah Weber's Blog

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Four Risky Picks for Your Fantasy Football Team Stuck

Posted on August 23, 2012 at 08:12 AM.

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(PHOTO: bleacherreport.com)

In addition to knowing whom to go after on draft day, it�s important to know whom to consider avoiding. Here are four players you might be tempted to draft, but should think about very carefully before doing so:

4. Peyton Manning

We all know how good Peyton can be, and it�s going to be tempting to draft him this year when he inevitably falls a few rounds. Before you do that, however, remember that the man hasn�t played in a REAL game of football (yes, I am implying that preseason isn�t completely �real�) in over a year. Peyton threw some really bad passes in his first couple preseason games, and while it isn�t totally fair to make any judgments based on a few throws, it was strange to see Manning floating ducks towards defenders once he returned to the field.

Injuries can change everything for a player, and neck injuries are particularly troubling. Manning could be one bad hit away from the end of his career, and even if he stays healthy, he just might not be the same QB he�s been in the past. With a decent assortment of gunslingers to choose from around the league, be weary about reaching for Peyton too early.

3. Michael Vick

Anyone who played a game of Madden in the early 2000�s probably considers drafting Michael Vick at least once every season. When he�s �on,� Vick is one of the most dynamic and explosive athletes in any sport. He is remarkably fast, has a cannon arm, and has matured significantly as a quarterback (and, hopefully, as a person) over the course of his turbulent career. On top of all that, Vick is surrounded by one of the best supporting casts in football. So why not draft him?

Injuries.

Vick has had lots of trouble staying healthy since returning to the league from prison, and nothing seems to be changing to suggest he won�t continue to suffer injuries. Whether he�s tweaking his knee from making a cut on a scramble, or breaking his hand on a defenders helmet as he zips off a rocket of a pass, Vick plays full speed at all times� and pays for it. As exciting and productive as it can be to have him on your team, proceed with extreme caution before taking Michael Vick with a very early pick.

2. Adrian Peterson

The concept of �risk� is somewhat relative, and in the case of Adrian Peterson, it will be �risky� to take him with one of the first couple picks of the draft. The problem is, Peterson is often the consensus number one selection, and some people drafting in the middle of the first round might be shocked to see him fall to them and thus make a knee jerk selection.

Here�s the problem: Peterson tore his ACL on Christmas Eve last season, and since has been working to rehabilitate his knee on a schedule that projected he could need as much as a year to recover. Now, sixth months later, he�s been cleared to practice in pads. It all just feels too fast.

Peterson is a gamer, and gamers want to see the field. Minnesota fans, naturally, want to see him on the field as well. When you combine the pressure to return with the severity of the injury, one worries if Peterson might be jeopardizing his career in playing too soon. AD could very well come back as strong as ever, and go on to have a season where in retrospect he should�ve been number one. He could also reinjure his knee and never be the same. Because of this risk, I would recommend you not start seriously consider drafting Adrian Peterson until at least your second pick.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew

MJD has been as consistent as any back in the league over the last several seasons, and he seemed primed to come back as strong as ever in 2012. That is, until his holdout turned ugly. Now we�re over halfway through the preseason and MJD still hasn�t reported to camp. Furthermore, Jaguars owner Shahid Kahn recently offended Jones-Drew by referring to the situation as not being that �big of a deal,� and telling the young running back that �the train is leaving the station.� When things turn personal, they turn ugly, and what could�ve been a basic contract dispute might become a spiteful situation in which either MJD refuses to play unless he�s traded, or the Jags shut him down for the season to avoid getting ripped off.

Granted, there is also the likelihood the situation gets resolved peacefully � either through negotiations or a trade � in which case Maurice Jones-Drew will probably be Maurice Jones-Drew this year (and thus, make him worthy of a top three pick). However, the other scenario could be that he doesn�t see the field at all. When you consider the possible payoff versus the possible setback for his fantasy owner, at this point in time Maurice Jones-Drew is likely to be the riskiest pick in the draft.

Who do you think is the riskiest pick for fantasy football players this season?

Noah Weber is a regular sports blogger for Operation Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @gobluenoah.

Comments

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